I really like NC State in this spot and think they pull the upset. First of all Florida State off their loss to Clemson that was really their Super Bowl now at 5-3 itâs hard to see where their effort is going to be the rest of the way. We have certainly seen that before with Florida State and going on the road to face NC State is no easy task. NC State is very strong in the front seven and have stopped everyone against the run. I think they can do the same in this game and I think we are getting several points of value since NC State is off 3 straight losses, but 2 where on the road against Clemson and Louisville. Then they had to face Boston College at home, another physical defense and I was not surprised to see them lose last week, but not they are home again and they finally face a defense thatâs not in the top 30 in run defense. Although Florida State has played better of late they still have an 87th ranked QB rating defense which is huge in this spot when you consider FSU is also without another guy in the secondary in Trey Marshall who is suspended for the first half for a targeting call. That should open things up for NC State and the passing offense. Ryan Finley, the QB transfer form Boise has 10 TDâs to 2 INTâs at home and if NC State can get a lead I think they win this game.
Florida Stateâs offensive line also has struggled big time and although itâs gotten better in their run blocking they now lose another guy who has started the last 7 games in Landon Dickerson. They go on the road with not much motivation to play hard against an NC State team that ranks top 25 in defense against the run and pass and are extremely tough in their front seven. If they get behind in this game Florida State is 114th in pass protection and NC State is 25th getting to the QB 10.74 % of the time at home. I also like the fact that NC State is 21st in defense holding opponents 71.3 yards under their season average. They have given Florida State scares in the past when Florida State had all the motivation to come back, but this time off the Clemson loss they are 5-3 nothing to play for if they go down in this game NC State with the outright upset. They are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
The home-field advantage in Carter-Finley is underrated, and if the Wolfpack fans smell a potential upset in the the works, it will become increasingly difficult for FSU to come from behind. This home-field advantage, especially at night, is major reason why Jimbo Fisher is just 1-2 overall in games at Raleigh.
